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Vietnam Logistics Summit

Vietnam Logistics in Motion Global Outlook & Demand Drivers

Growth to continue but at a slower rate in 2008 & 2009

US GDP growth will likely be zero-tonegative in Q208-Q308 But China, India & Russia made up almost half of global GDP growth in 2007 and will help cushion the slowdown

China FDI will probably exceed US$70b for 2008 Indian FDI has been surging since 2006 and is likely to hit US$25-35b for 2008 Prepared for: Vietnam Logistics Summit 08 Date: 27 Aug 2008 Page 2 Vietnam’s FDI surge (~US$30b likely in 2008) continues unaffected by the inflationary crisis, due to continuing political stability & a likely easing of the Dong

Regional Overview for Logistics

Robust but slowing growth in 2008

Air/Ocean Freight

Growth will continue but at a slower rate compared to 2007

By 2025, 2,990 aircraft will be added to freighter fleets around the world, with three out of four of those planes being converted from passenger jets

….prompted operators to go on a buying spree – capesize ships, the largest type of bulk carrier, have almost tripled in price to US$96m from 1998

ASEAN Initiatives

ASEAN integrates further into single market

99.8% of goods under the Inclusion List for the Asean-6 countries (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) are in the tariff range of 0-5% ASEAN governments have also committed themselves to liberalizing their nations’ services sectors, the first of which is to establish an ASEAN Open Skies Agreement in 2008

The CAFTA-TIG Agreement covers tariff-lines representing more than 95% of China-ASEAN trade, which grew annually by 23% from 1997-2005 to reach US$130.5b Trade with ASEAN represented about 9% of China’s total trade in 2005, making ASEAN its fifth largest trading partner following the EU, US, Japan and Hong Kong

Asia’s Infrastructure Initiatives

New infrastructure & systems will aid logistics growth in Asia ChinaRoad & Rail

Hong Kong



Road & Rail