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Spire shares insights on China’s economy under the new leadership

15 November 2012
Channel NewsAsia – amLIVE!

Spire shares insights on China’s economy under the new leadership

China’s leadership change in November 2012 had fuelled speculation about its impact on the Chinese economy. Spire Research and Consulting was invited to share its insights on Channel NewsAsia – amLIVE!.

Leon Perera, Chief Executive Officer of Spire Research and Consulting, commented that the Chinese economy would benefit if there was more liberalization in the telecommunications and banking sectors. He added that should the best and most value-creating companies be able to obtain access to loans and IPO listings, it would definitely yield tremendous benefits to both ordinary citizens and the economy.

Perera opined that the new leaders would continue with the existing policies to manage economic growth in the short-term. He shared that the “stealth fiscal stimulus” would continue and lead to increased spending in construction and public infrastructure.

believed that the new leaders were very conscious of the potential for social problems in the country, such as the gap between the rich and poor. Perera felt that they should look into liberalizing banking to give its people better interest rates on their deposits. Other areas that needed more considered action include healthcare reforms, better risk pooling and social safety nets for retirement.

also predicted that China would post GDP growth broadly in the range of 7% to 8.5% for the next few years. He opined that China’s GDP growth next year may be pretty flat with this year, attributing this trend to the healthy domestic sector – a result or rising wages and healthcare reform – coupled with the muted international sector.

shared that rising wages, rather than currency appreciation, would be a major limiting factor to the competitiveness of China’s exports. Another limitation was the anti-Japanese protests that were affecting FDI from Japan.

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