SPIRE SIGN IN Register

Events

Spire's six most recent events.

Spire Malaysia introduces healthcare products from Taiwan
Medical and healthcare products introduced into Malaysian market from ...
Spire speaks on Omni-channel strategies for Indonesian retailers
Spire speaks to US firms about Southeast Asia’s Silver market
Spire shares business advice to start-ups on Indonesian market entry
Spire talks about strategic planning lessons from leading organization...
Spire speaks to Japanese firms about the threat of counterfeits
Spire speaks to Japanese firms about the threat of counterfeits

Vietnam Logistics Summit

Press Release

27 August 2008

Vietnam Logistics in Motion Global Outlook & Demand Drivers

Growth to continue but at a slower rate in 2008 & 2009

  • World growth will slow to ~4% in 2008, with emerging markets remaining as lead growth drivers

US GDP growth will likely be zero-tonegative in Q208-Q308 But China, India & Russia made up almost half of global GDP growth in 2007 and will help cushion the slowdown

  • While weaker US demand and a weakening US$ will make a big impact on the more export dependent economies of TW, HK & SG…
  • … other growth drivers in the region – including healthy domestic demand, exports to non-US markets, foreign direct investments (FDIs), and fixed asset investment (FAI) – remain on track
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into AP remain strong, including for Vietnam

China FDI will probably exceed US$70b for 2008 Indian FDI has been surging since 2006 and is likely to hit US$25-35b for 2008 Prepared for: Vietnam Logistics Summit 08 Date: 27 Aug 2008 Page 2 Vietnam’s FDI surge (~US$30b likely in 2008) continues unaffected by the inflationary crisis, due to continuing political stability & a likely easing of the Dong

Regional Overview for Logistics

Robust but slowing growth in 2008

  • Developing Asia’s trade performance in the last two decades has been remarkable
  • From 1984 to 2004, its exports expanded almost 10- fold and by 2004 had reached 21.3%
  • Asia now accounts for 40% of the world’s total output in PPP terms, and this percentage is expected to rise to 60% with the rapid output expansion in China and India
  • The Asian transportation market is projected to grow from US$700 billion to over US$1.3 trillion by 2020*, with most of the growth coming from the North-east Asian mega market
  • Prospects hinge on rising bunker costs and a slowing US economy

Air/Ocean Freight

Growth will continue but at a slower rate compared to 2007

  • Fuelled by strong trans-Pacific and East Asian trade, air and ocean freight volumes have been increasing steadily
  • Long-term growth prospects are bright

By 2025, 2,990 aircraft will be added to freighter fleets around the world, with three out of four of those planes being converted from passenger jets

  • Double-digit growth in demand for international container shipping services in 2007…

….prompted operators to go on a buying spree – capesize ships, the largest type of bulk carrier, have almost tripled in price to US$96m from 1998

  • However there are short-term concerns – container shipping on the Asia-EU and Asia-US routes have slowed in 1Q-2Q 2008, though intra-Asian routes have not been badly affected

ASEAN Initiatives

ASEAN integrates further into single market

  • The ASEAN logistics market has seen an upward trend for the past 3-4 years, and is expected to continue growing strongly over the next five years
  • Under the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), significant progress has been achieved in reducing goods tariffs

99.8% of goods under the Inclusion List for the Asean-6 countries (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) are in the tariff range of 0-5% ASEAN governments have also committed themselves to liberalizing their nations’ services sectors, the first of which is to establish an ASEAN Open Skies Agreement in 2008

  • China implemented the China-ASEAN Trade in Goods (TIG) Agreement in July 2005

The CAFTA-TIG Agreement covers tariff-lines representing more than 95% of China-ASEAN trade, which grew annually by 23% from 1997-2005 to reach US$130.5b Trade with ASEAN represented about 9% of China’s total trade in 2005, making ASEAN its fifth largest trading partner following the EU, US, Japan and Hong Kong

  • Vietnam was admitted as a member of WTO in 2007

Asia’s Infrastructure Initiatives

New infrastructure & systems will aid logistics growth in Asia ChinaRoad & Rail

  • Add 23% more in the next 5 years
  • 4-lane highway from Hanoi to Kunming
  • Construction of 100,000km of new rail lines – one-third being high-speed passenger lines

Hong Kong

Air

  • World’s busiest airport for international cargo since 1996
  • In 2006, air cargo reached 3.6mil tonnes and express air cargo is to grow 13% annually for the next decade

India

Road & Rail

  • Highways & road development projects worth USD12b being implemented through National Highway Authority of India
  • Moves to augment rail infrastructure through private sector being implemented

Korea

Sea

  • De
Back to Top

Back to Home
BTBTBTBTBTBT